Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best
"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."
We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.
Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.
-The New York Times Book Review
-James Harkin, Financial Times
"Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books."
-Jonathan Beard, New Scientist
"A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose . . . Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear."
-Philip Tetlock, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
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